دوشنبه ۲۶ شهریور ۰۳ | ۱۴:۵۷ ۷ بازديد
es in preference or life events such as
divorce or financial necessity, is estimated to account for
approximately 80% of recycled diamond volume today.
Given that no significant changes in the sale and purchase
rates of used diamond jewelry are anticipated, these
non-inheritance recycling drivers are likely to persist and
continue to fluctuate with the price of diamonds, albeit
with a limited incremental impact on the long-term supply
development through to 2033. Inheritance, on the other
hand, will grow as the initial generations who owned dia-
monds age. For instance, in Japan, individuals over age 60
possess more than half of the country’s diamonds; in the
US, the first generation of diamond engagement rings
(DER) at scale (the generation where >50% brides received
DER) could be inherited in the next 20 years, driving an
increase in the inheritance-based recycling volume.14
Yet, the proportion of diamonds removed from recycled
jewelry and sold “as new” has steadily declined in recent
years (compared to recycled pieces being sold “as is”), from
approximately 60% of the total recycled jewelry PWP value
in 2015 to approximately 30% in 2021.
This trend is expected to extend into the future, albeit at a
slowing pace, thus limiting the share impacting the dia-
mond supply chain. (See Exhibit 4.) The increased focus on
vintage pieces is driven by buyers and sellers alike. Sellers
can often capture more value from vintage jewelry than
removed stones. Reintroducing diamonds into the value
chain reduces their value by 30% to 40%,15 owing to costs
associated with the dealer margin, melting and logistics,
testing and proving authenticity, and recutting or polishing.
Once the stones enter the market, they must compete on
price with newly mined diamonds. In addition, unlike with
gold, there is no way to trade recycled stones and a lack of
transparency on the price of recycled stones. Buyers, on
the other hand, increasingly value the unique design,
affordability, and sustainability aspects offered by vintage
jewelry. This increases the value of vintage jewelry com-
pared to that of pure recycled material.
Finally, the trend is supported by an increasing number of
online consumer-to-consumer platforms that make trading
of secondhand vintage jewelry simpler. These channels are
highly sought after by vintage jewelry shoppers.
Source: BCG analysis.
Exhibit 3 - Pre-owned Diamond Jewelry Can Reenter the Value Chain in a Variety of Ways
14. De Beers Group; Japan Ministry of Finance Trade Statistics; BCG analysis, 2024.
15. Paul Zimnisky, “Recycling Could Save the Natural Industry,” 2019.
Jewelry piece
Sold or
traded in Recut and
polished
Re-entry into diamond supply chain
Left
intact
Reasons to sell
• Inheritance
• Financial need
• Change of preference
• Divorce
• Other
Pre-owned
diamond
jewelry
Diamond
separated from
frame material
Vintage jewelry
(piece remains
intact)
New jewelry,
with recycled "as
new" stone
New jewelry,
with recycled "as
new" stone
Diamond
THE FUTURE OF THE NATURAL DIAMOND INDUSTRY 9
Overall, the impact of recycled diamonds on supply in terms
of PWP value is expected to remain stable, contributing less
than 10% of the supply of natural polished diamonds. Total
recycled diamond volume is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of
approximately 2% through to 2033, mostly driven by an
increase in inheritance across mature markets, as well as an
overall larger global “installed base” of diamonds to feed
recycling going forward. However, there will be a decreasing
share of diamonds removed from their settings and reenter-
ing the value chain compared to pieces resold on used
markets as vintage jewelry. This dynamic is reflected in the
supply forecast in this report.
Value Chain and Stock Levels
Stable Midstream inventories expected to remain,
while efficiency reduces Downstream inventory
Natural diamond inventories are held across all stages of
the diamond value chain at varying levels. Inventory man-
agement dynamics directly influence diamond price forma-
tion in the short term by impacting the immediate supply
availability. Midstream and downstream inventory levels
are particularly relevant as demand flows up through the
value chain.
Sources: De Beers; BCG analysis.
Exhibit 4 - Share of Vintage Sales out of All Recycled Diamond Pieces Forecast to Increase
68%
32%
74%
26%24%
2023 2033
Out of all recycled diamond pieces:
~30% of sold pieces are added back
into the supply chain "as new,"
removed from their current setting
Share trending down
Diamonds sold as used vintage diamond jewelry
Diamonds sold “as new"
~70% of sold pieces are resold on used
markets as vintage jewelry (especially
branded) or stand-alone stones
Share trending up
10 THE FUTURE OF THE NATURAL DIAMOND INDUSTRY
Midstream. In the short term, midstream inventories
fluctuate, largely driven by prevailing market conditions,
short-term views on the market outlook, and financing.
Longer term, structural midstream inventory levels are
dictated by the need to manage stock for operational pur-
poses. Although efficiency and scale gains in the midstream
have generally reduced stock levels from those observed in
the early 2000s, lead times for processing and sales require
cutters and polishers to generally maintain a minimum
inventory level. However, this floor is occasionally breached
in very sharp demand-recovery scenarios.
Downstream. Historically, retailers have held structurally
higher inventory levels than midstream players to ensure
that a wide range of products are available to consumers.
However, the growth of more efficient major brands and
retailers and the rise of online retail have reduced stock-to-
sales ratios, albeit at a slowing rate. While stock-to-sales ra-
tios could continue to decline, they are increasingly nearing
their technical inventory floor (for example, approximately
90 days for major brands), absent a fundamental change in
downstream industry structure.
Demand Drivers
Demand for diamonds over the long term is influenced
primarily by affordability, which is closely linked to key eco-
nomic fundamentals such as the growth of GDP and PDI.
Additionally, the desirability of diamonds, both within the
jewelry sector and relative to other nonessential goods and
experiences, plays a significant role.
Historical data shows a close correlation between the de-
mand for luxury goods, includ
divorce or financial necessity, is estimated to account for
approximately 80% of recycled diamond volume today.
Given that no significant changes in the sale and purchase
rates of used diamond jewelry are anticipated, these
non-inheritance recycling drivers are likely to persist and
continue to fluctuate with the price of diamonds, albeit
with a limited incremental impact on the long-term supply
development through to 2033. Inheritance, on the other
hand, will grow as the initial generations who owned dia-
monds age. For instance, in Japan, individuals over age 60
possess more than half of the country’s diamonds; in the
US, the first generation of diamond engagement rings
(DER) at scale (the generation where >50% brides received
DER) could be inherited in the next 20 years, driving an
increase in the inheritance-based recycling volume.14
Yet, the proportion of diamonds removed from recycled
jewelry and sold “as new” has steadily declined in recent
years (compared to recycled pieces being sold “as is”), from
approximately 60% of the total recycled jewelry PWP value
in 2015 to approximately 30% in 2021.
This trend is expected to extend into the future, albeit at a
slowing pace, thus limiting the share impacting the dia-
mond supply chain. (See Exhibit 4.) The increased focus on
vintage pieces is driven by buyers and sellers alike. Sellers
can often capture more value from vintage jewelry than
removed stones. Reintroducing diamonds into the value
chain reduces their value by 30% to 40%,15 owing to costs
associated with the dealer margin, melting and logistics,
testing and proving authenticity, and recutting or polishing.
Once the stones enter the market, they must compete on
price with newly mined diamonds. In addition, unlike with
gold, there is no way to trade recycled stones and a lack of
transparency on the price of recycled stones. Buyers, on
the other hand, increasingly value the unique design,
affordability, and sustainability aspects offered by vintage
jewelry. This increases the value of vintage jewelry com-
pared to that of pure recycled material.
Finally, the trend is supported by an increasing number of
online consumer-to-consumer platforms that make trading
of secondhand vintage jewelry simpler. These channels are
highly sought after by vintage jewelry shoppers.
Source: BCG analysis.
Exhibit 3 - Pre-owned Diamond Jewelry Can Reenter the Value Chain in a Variety of Ways
14. De Beers Group; Japan Ministry of Finance Trade Statistics; BCG analysis, 2024.
15. Paul Zimnisky, “Recycling Could Save the Natural Industry,” 2019.
Jewelry piece
Sold or
traded in Recut and
polished
Re-entry into diamond supply chain
Left
intact
Reasons to sell
• Inheritance
• Financial need
• Change of preference
• Divorce
• Other
Pre-owned
diamond
jewelry
Diamond
separated from
frame material
Vintage jewelry
(piece remains
intact)
New jewelry,
with recycled "as
new" stone
New jewelry,
with recycled "as
new" stone
Diamond
Overall, the impact of recycled diamonds on supply in terms
of PWP value is expected to remain stable, contributing less
than 10% of the supply of natural polished diamonds. Total
recycled diamond volume is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of
approximately 2% through to 2033, mostly driven by an
increase in inheritance across mature markets, as well as an
overall larger global “installed base” of diamonds to feed
recycling going forward. However, there will be a decreasing
share of diamonds removed from their settings and reenter-
ing the value chain compared to pieces resold on used
markets as vintage jewelry. This dynamic is reflected in the
supply forecast in this report.
Value Chain and Stock Levels
Stable Midstream inventories expected to remain,
while efficiency reduces Downstream inventory
Natural diamond inventories are held across all stages of
the diamond value chain at varying levels. Inventory man-
agement dynamics directly influence diamond price forma-
tion in the short term by impacting the immediate supply
availability. Midstream and downstream inventory levels
are particularly relevant as demand flows up through the
value chain.
Sources: De Beers; BCG analysis.
Exhibit 4 - Share of Vintage Sales out of All Recycled Diamond Pieces Forecast to Increase
68%
32%
74%
26%24%
2023 2033
Out of all recycled diamond pieces:
~30% of sold pieces are added back
into the supply chain "as new,"
removed from their current setting
Share trending down
Diamonds sold as used vintage diamond jewelry
Diamonds sold “as new"
~70% of sold pieces are resold on used
markets as vintage jewelry (especially
branded) or stand-alone stones
Share trending up
Midstream. In the short term, midstream inventories
fluctuate, largely driven by prevailing market conditions,
short-term views on the market outlook, and financing.
Longer term, structural midstream inventory levels are
dictated by the need to manage stock for operational pur-
poses. Although efficiency and scale gains in the midstream
have generally reduced stock levels from those observed in
the early 2000s, lead times for processing and sales require
cutters and polishers to generally maintain a minimum
inventory level. However, this floor is occasionally breached
in very sharp demand-recovery scenarios.
Downstream. Historically, retailers have held structurally
higher inventory levels than midstream players to ensure
that a wide range of products are available to consumers.
However, the growth of more efficient major brands and
retailers and the rise of online retail have reduced stock-to-
sales ratios, albeit at a slowing rate. While stock-to-sales ra-
tios could continue to decline, they are increasingly nearing
their technical inventory floor (for example, approximately
90 days for major brands), absent a fundamental change in
downstream industry structure.
Demand Drivers
Demand for diamonds over the long term is influenced
primarily by affordability, which is closely linked to key eco-
nomic fundamentals such as the growth of GDP and PDI.
Additionally, the desirability of diamonds, both within the
jewelry sector and relative to other nonessential goods and
experiences, plays a significant role.
Historical data shows a close correlation between the de-
mand for luxury goods, includ
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