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a marked reduction in the number of smaller mortality crises from the 1590s
onwards: from 1563 to 1593, there are 10 years when crisis mortality exceeded 10
per cent of deaths, but from 1594 to 1665 there are only five years. In other words,
there appears to be a disappearance of smaller crises from 1590 onwards.
IV.1: Diffusion of plague
By examining weekly crisis mortality in the individual parishes in our sample, we
can track the geographical diffusion of plague during major epidemics from 1563
to 1665. In particular we can look at where and when epidemics originated, and
how rapidly they spread. For 1665, where weekly Bills collected by Graunt survive,
we can compare the timing and pattern of crises detected by the surveillance
algorithm with official notifications of plague deaths.
Figure 8 shows snapshots of the weekly mortality by parish in the four major
plagues.The value for each parish is the number of deaths each week relative to its
Farrington threshold. In each case, the map starts in week 17, except in 1563,
when sustained, elevated mortality is not apparent until week 26.
What is notable about each map is that mortality first becomes entrenched in
the poor northern suburbs, before spreading around the walls, and then into the
intra-mural parishes. In two cases (1603
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